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Perplexing | Consequences
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David buying Goliath? Perplexity’s bid for Google Chrome
Hot take: Could Fed rate cuts actually make for higher mortgage rates?
Markets Recap / Deal News
Interviewing this week? Here’s some content for your conversation.
Perplexity’s $34 Billion Chrome Bid: Ambition, Antitrust, or Marketing?
This week, the tech world lit up with one of the most surprising headlines in recent memory: Perplexity, the AI-powered search engine valued at $18 billion, made an unsolicited $34 billion, all-cash bid for Alphabet’s Google Chrome.
Naturally, this raises a few questions:
How can Perplexity buy something worth twice its own valuation when they don’t have the cash?
Where is that kind of money coming from?
Is Chrome even on the market in the first place?
Let’s unpack them.
1. Why this isn’t your typical M&A deal
In most mergers and acquisitions, a larger, more established company buys a smaller one. Payment can be in cash, stock, or a mix of the two. When it’s cash, the buyer either uses what’s already on their balance sheet or raises debt, which lenders will only provide if the pro forma business (meaning, the company after the deal closes) has reliable, stable cash flows. If it’s stock, the seller receives equity in the buyer.
This deal? The opposite. Here we have a smaller, younger company attempting an all-cash purchase of a far larger, more deeply established one. Perplexity’s $18bn valuation as of its latest financing round and big-name VC backing from Nvidia, SoftBank, and Jeff Bezos is lofty for its size. With revenue estimates between $50-150mm over the last year, its price-to-sales multiple could be anywhere from 120x to 360x. Growth is rapid, but there is still a giant question mark about how AI companies will justify these rich valuations. For context: Alphabet's revenue multiple is 6x and NVDIA’s is 30x.
Is there precedent for this? Not really. Deals where a much smaller player buys a far larger asset are rare. One that comes to mind is AOL’s bubble-era, stock-fueled takeover of Time Warner in 2000. At the time, AOL and Time Warner had similar market caps, but AOL (the buyer) generated only about half the earnings of Time Warner. Its stock was so inflated during the dot-com bubble that it was essentially playing with monopoly money, using overvalued equity to fund the deal. When reality set in, AOL’s valuation collapsed, leading to a staggering $100bn goodwill write-down. That deal is still considered one of the most disastrous mergers in history.
Occasionally, you do see smaller companies appear as the buyer “on paper” in what’s called a reverse takeover or merger of equals, where the smaller entity becomes the legal acquirer for structural or listing reasons, but the larger company’s management or shareholders effectively take control. That’s a far cry from Perplexity’s situation, which would require genuine financing to buy Chrome outright.
2. Where could the cash come from?
Perplexity’s offer letter mentions unnamed VC backers. In practice, how this would work is not clear. Would these investors be investing in a special vehicle that is just for Chrome? Without Chrome producing direct cash flows (its value is instead in distribution and search defaults), raising debt against it would be tricky. Would they be investing equity in some combined entity? There are a lot of reasons why this bid is so unusual.
3. Is Chrome even for sale?
The short answer is no. However, this all ties back to the U.S. Justice Department’s antitrust case against Google’s search business. In August 2024, Judge Amit Mehta ruled that Google illegally maintained a monopoly by locking up default-search agreements (like paying Apple billions to be Safari’s default). The case is now in its remedies phase, where the court decides what changes Google must make.
Most legal analysts expect “conduct remedies”, which could include limits on exclusivity deals or potential data-sharing requirements, rather than a sale or public markets separation technique (like a spin off or split off).
By dropping a fully formed offer on the judge’s desk, Perplexity is essentially saying: “If you decide Chrome should be sold, we’re ready to buy and keep it running”. It’s a strategic PR move, but whether it’s an actual real bid remains to be seen.
Could a Cut in Interest Rates ACTUALLY Make Mortgage Rates HIGHER?
Buy the rumor…sell the fact?
We have about a month to go until the next meeting of the Federal Reserve, where the market is fully pricing in a 25 basis point (0.25%) cut of the Federal Funds rate. Not wanting to be caught unawares like they were a year ago, some investors are even taking a gamble that the Fed will make a more drastic move, potentially cutting 50bps. All told, front end interest rate markets have a total of 75 basis points of cuts (three full 25bp eases) priced in over the next four Fed meetings, taking us through January 2026.
As a reminder, the Federal Funds rate is one tool that the Fed uses to affect monetary policy in accordance with its dual mandate of maximizing employment and maintaining price stability. Recent softness in the labor market is supportive of rate cuts. Inflation data remains more of a mixed bag.
Just this morning we had a big surprise to the upside on July’s PPI (Producer Price Index), which rose by the most in three years amidst a jump in the costs of goods and services.

Source: Reuters
Conventional orthodoxy tells us that the market leads the Fed, and the Fed knows what the market is telling it to do. Conversely, if the market is offsides, the Fed will typically communicate strongly to move the market back on track.
But what happens if the Fed yields to the markets and cuts into an emerging inflationary environment?
My thesis: long end interest rates rise, and the yield curve bear steepens. Rate cuts produce a “buy the rumor; sell the fact” dynamic, whereby delivery of the very policy the market (and politicians) have been clamoring for in fact augurs a selloff in rates. That selloff would be particularly concentrated in the long end of the curve, which dictates mortgage rates and long term government funding.
Why would long end interest rates rise? Because longer term interest rates reflect the market’s perception of where interest rates will be IN THE FUTURE. And if the economy is experiencing high inflation WHILE the Fed is easing monetary policy, the market will expect interest rates to rise more steeply in the future to combat that inflation.
So a word of caution to those of you counting on a Fed rate cut to suddenly make houses more affordable or lower borrowing costs for the government and corporations: be careful what you wish for, you just might get it.