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“Wexit”: is NYC doomed as the world’s biggest financial hub?

With democratic socialist candidate Zohran Mamdani steamrolling former governor Andrew Cuomo in the democratic primaries for the NYC mayoral election, we’re hearing a lot of rumbling from the city’s wealthiest business and finance leaders about potentially leaving New York if he is elected into office. 

One of the reasons? Mamdani has proposed tax increases from already sky-high levels for NYC residents who make more than $1mm per year, as well as increases in corporate tax rates from 7.25 to 11%. In reality, the state would need to sign off on the tax hikes, something Governor Hochul has indicated she is disinclined to do. Regardless, Mamdani’s popularity represents a dramatic shift that has elicited a strong reaction.

The billionaire CEO of local beloved grocery store chain Gristedes has threatened to close up shop. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis suggested we’d see another wave of investment firms relocating to Miami, similar to what we saw during Covid. The fin-memers took to social media en masse opining on how this political swing could lead to an exodus of wealthy financiers.

To be clear: while an income of $1mm may seem ludicrously high for many, it is frankly table stakes for senior financial professionals who want to live and raise a family comfortably in Manhattan. Manhattan is the world’s most expensive city, and already has one of the highest effective tax rates in the country. 

Neither of us is a political expert, but the trend of diversification out of NYC into other cities is not new.  We have both exited NYC ourselves for other financial hubs (Charlotte and Boston, respectively), and have a number of friends in the financial services industry who have made similar moves to Miami, Denver, Austin, L.A., etc.

And we’re seeing a broader trend of wealth exits — which we’re apparently calling “wexits” thanks to Morning Brew — globally.

Yesterday, the Henley & Partners Private Wealth Migration report came out, showing the net migration of millionaires into — and out of — certain countries.

Here is the list of the top ten countries in terms of millionaire inflows:

Many of the inflows into so-called “safe haven” countries are unsurprising.  Much of the motivation behind these relocations is tax benefits, such as avoiding estate taxes in passing down wealth to future generations.

Per Henley & Partners, the following countries do not impose estate taxes:

“Australia, Austria, Bermuda, Canada, Cayman Islands, Costa Rica, Cyprus, Hong Kong, Israel, Mauritius, Malta, Monaco, New Zealand, Panama, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, and the UAE. In Italy and Portugal the rates are relatively low — 4% and 10%, respectively, and several Swiss cantons also maintain low or negligible estate tax rates.”

And for those looking to protect their investments, countries like the UAE (which leads the list in millionaire inflows) not only have no inheritance taxes. They also have no capital gains tax, making them particularly appealing for those in the financial services industry.

But it’s pretty jarring to look at the leaders on the list of millionaire exits and see that list consisting not of countries fraught with war or discord, but rather to see several European countries, with the U.K. leading the way. Many of these countries have recently imposed wealth taxes, or increased the tax burden on “non-doms”. And as the saying goes…follow the money.

Here is the list of countries leading the way in millionaire outflows:

Let’s talk about the U.K. in particular.

This week also marks the nine year anniversary of Brexit. Brexit’s legacy as an economic “own goal” seems fairly well established. But the trend of wealth exiting has accelerated in the past year. Why? In part because the Starmer administration has extended the 40% estate tax to non-domeciled UK residents’ overseas assets, along with substantially increasing capital gains taxes & taxes on carried interest, which heavily impact Private Equity investors.

And the wealthy are voting with their feet. At least 10% of the UK’s wealthy “non-dom” population have exited since 2024, with expectations that more will follow suit.

What can we learn from this in America? Here’s a heatmap of the states with the highest population growth in America since Covid. Now, there are multiple broader structural shifts behind these moves, but I wonder which states have no income taxes…

Which begs the question: if we do get a political regime change in NYC, will we see a “wexit” from New York?

DM us @thewallstreetskinny and let us know what you think!